What Changed
- A confirmed hit on the East-West pipeline moves the attacks from Saudi offices to the route that carries Saudi crude around Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said the pipeline was targeted in the Medina region on 9 November, causing a limited fire that was put out (Arab News; Reuters). It reported no injuries, said operations were unaffected and did not say who carried out the attack. The line was shut for several days in September after drone attacks that Saudi Arabia said came from Iraq (Al Jazeera, AFP, Reuters).
- Iraq says it has US understandings to export oil through a lane near Oman, a second permit system beside the one Iran runs. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told Al Jazeera that the understandings cover a shipping lane near Oman (Reuters, 8 November). Windward counted 14 crossings in the 48 hours to 18:00 UTC on 8 November. UKMTO on 9 November reclassified Saturday's tanker fire in the Strait as an attack (CBS).
- Brent fell almost 6% on the day the bypass pipeline was hit, so futures are pricing the talks rather than the physical risk to supply. Brent settled down $5.75, or 5.85%, at $92.57 a barrel on 9 November, and was down more than $7 after the settlement (Reuters). Trump said on Sunday he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks while talks progress. JPMorgan estimated the global oil surplus at about 1.4 million barrels a day in October (Reuters).
- Trump called new strikes quite unlikely after meeting Qatar's prime minister, leaving the blockade as Washington's main lever while talks run. Trump cited positive momentum towards ending the war and said Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE favour keeping the US blockade (The National). Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, called his talks with Trump and Vice President JD Vance positive (AFP and AP via Arab News). Iran's foreign ministry says the IAEA carried out an inspection at Bushehr a few days ago (CBS).
- Retail fuel is following futures down, but diesel is easing more slowly than gasoline, so the distillate premium stays above $2 a gallon. AAA's national average for regular was $4.0093 on 9 November, from $4.1694 a week earlier. Diesel was $6.1723, from $6.2921. The gap between the two is $2.16 a gallon.
Five Locks
0/5 RESTORED
No lock has moved; 0/5 are restored. Crew consent is furthest: UKMTO reclassified Saturday's tanker fire in the Strait as an attack (CBS, 9 November), and 8 of the 14 crossings Windward counted in the 48 hours to 8 November were dark. H&M is closest, though brokers put tanker war-risk premiums in the region at 6-10% of hull in October.
From The Insurance War
Three-Layer Chokepoint
Hormuz is closed: Windward counted 14 crossings in the 48 hours to 18:00 UTC on 8 November, 8 of them dark, against about 85 a day before the war (IMF PortWatch). Suez / Red Sea stays at elevated threat, with no confirmed Houthi attack on merchant shipping in the past 24 hours; 53 ships used the canal last week, Drewry said on 5 November. Saudi Petroline is under attack: Saudi Arabia's energy ministry says the East-West pipeline was targeted near Medina on 9 November, causing a limited fire, with operations unaffected.
From The Houthi Paradox
Houthi Escalation
Kinetic, level 3. The Houthis said they carried out the 8 November attack on Aramco's offices in Riyadh (Reuters), which Saudi Arabia's energy ministry says damaged an administrative building. Riyadh has not said who targeted the East-West pipeline on 9 November, and no Houthi attack on Red Sea shipping has been confirmed.
From The Houthi Paradox
Bold text indicates a value that changed since the previous update.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Current | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Days of conflict | 255 | Feb 28 |
| Day 255. Lines with no newer source keep their dates and are marked stale once past their stale age. | ||
| Five Locks restored | 0/5 | 5/5 |
| No lock has moved since the war began. Crew consent is furthest from restoration after a record month of ship strikes in October. | ||
| Ceasefire channels | Qatar-mediated indirect talks; Trump met Qatar's prime minister on 9 Nov, cited positive momentum and called new strikes quite unlikely (The National · 9 Nov) | — |
| 8 November: Iran's foreign minister says mediators have stopped travelling since the midterms, and Rubio says the sides are not near a breakthrough. 9 November: Iran calls its two-day proposal a sign of goodwill (CBS), and Qatar's prime minister calls his White House talks positive (Arab News). | ||
| US KIA | 23 total US deaths, all causes, and 866 wounded (DCAS via Defense News · 4 Nov); 11 by enemy fire (DCAS via CBS News · 30 Oct) | 0 |
| DCAS, 23 September: 14 plus 5 across the two tables -> 23 total, 11 by enemy fire (DCAS via CBS News, 30 October) -> 23 total, 866 wounded (DCAS via Defense News, 4 November). Officials cited by a newspaper put September deaths at at least 22; that figure is held separately and not blended. | ||
| Iranian deaths (HRANA) | 3,636 (HRANA · 7 Apr · stale) | 0 |
| Context figures, not blended: Iran's Foundation of Martyrs 3,468; US and Israeli estimates above 6,000. Composition 1,701 civilians, 1,221 military, 714 unclassified. | ||
| Lebanon deaths | 4,390 killed, 12,429 wounded since 2 March (Ministry of Public Health via SANA · 5 Nov) | 0 |
| 4,389 killed, 12,428 wounded to 30 October (ministry via Arab News) -> 4,390 killed, 12,429 wounded to 5 November (ministry via SANA, Syrian state media). A reference compilation shows 4,383 and is held separately. | ||
| Israeli deaths | No all-theatre IDF total found. Candidates, not combined: 32+ military since 2 March (IDF figure via an aggregator); 40 soldiers plus 1 contractor in southern Lebanon; 67+ (41 military, 26 civilian) on a research compilation · stale | 0 |
| No all-theatre figure from the Israeli military had been published as of 4 October. A previously carried total stays retired. | ||
| Strait daily transits | 14 vessels in the 48 hours to 18:00 UTC 8 Nov, 8 dark; 5 of 7 inbound on 7-8 Nov used the southern corridor (Windward · 8 Nov). A lower bound | 153 |
| Windward counts crossings over a stated window, dark ones included, and its counts are lower bounds. JMIC's 5 November note put US-assisted transits at about 31 a day over its reporting period, a different universe, and the 153-a-day baseline is a different count again and is held. | ||
| Ships trapped in Gulf | 24 seafarer deaths across 129 confirmed incidents (IMO via gCaptain · 5 Nov); up to 400 ships and about 6,000 seafarers unable to leave (IMO · 28 Aug) | 0 |
| Confirmed incidents: 106 (14 October, via Insurance Business) -> 128 (3 November) -> 129 (5 November). The trapped count is IMO's 28 August figure; no newer count is confirmed. | ||
| War-risk insurance | 6-10% hull (brokers to the FT, tankers in the region, via Insurance Business · 14 Oct) · stale | 0.25% |
| Replaces the 22 July print: 6-10% (brokers to the FT, reported 14 October). The market-wide 0.25% to 1-3% of hull range is a different quantity. | ||
| War-risk listed areas (JWLA) | JWLA-035, issued 16 Sep, covers the Black Sea; Gulf and Red Sea areas as amended at JWLA-034 of 29 Jul (LMA · 16 Sep; no newer circular on 8 Nov) | — |
| The revision in force on 27 February 2026 is not yet sourced, so the baseline remains a dash. | ||
| Hormuz status | CLOSED | OPEN |
| Closed: Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's top security official, says Iran will not open the Strait until the US meets seven conditions (Reuters, 5 November). Iraq says it has US understandings to export oil through a lane near Oman (Reuters, 8 November), while Windward counted 14 crossings in the 48 hours to 8 November. | ||
| Iranian naval vessels destroyed | 136+ (92% of largest vessels per CENTCOM) | 0 |
| No revised CENTCOM cumulative is confirmed. The US president's claim of 159 ships on the seabed (1 October) is not CENTCOM's count. | ||
| Iranian BM launch rate (vs. Day 1) | Down 86% from Day 1 (Joint Chiefs); no launch at a host state found from 9 Sep to 4 Oct. Excludes attacks on merchant ships · stale | 167/day |
| Houthi ballistic missiles at Saudi targets are a separate launcher and are not counted. No later count is confirmed here. | ||
| Iranian drone rate (vs. Day 1) | Down 83% from Day 1 (Joint Chiefs); no drone attack on a host state found for about 29 days to 4 Oct. Excludes attacks on merchant ships · stale | 541/day |
| Houthi drones aimed at Saudi targets are a separate launcher and are not counted. No later count is confirmed here. | ||
| Ground troops in Iran | 0 (SOF insertion proven) | 0 |
| No special-forces insertion or island seizure confirmed as of 4 October. | ||
| US troops in Middle East | About 50,000 (press figure · 4 Oct), with 9,000-10,000 more due by end-November (Stars and Stripes); other press figures about 20,000 (CBS) and more than 60,000 (Euronews) · stale | ~30,000 |
| No official figure was published as of 4 October. The pre-conflict baseline is ~30,000. | ||
| Iranian oil on water | ~8M bbl outside the US blockade zone (Kpler via Iran International · 10 Oct) · stale | — |
| Down from nearly 90M bbl in mid-July (Kpler via Iran International). Crude held outside the US blockade zone; not a global floating-storage estimate and not an anchorage count. | ||
HRANA: Human Rights Activists News Agency, independent Iranian casualty verification network. Military data from CENTCOM and IDF statements, checked against open-source reporting.
Commodities
| Commodity | Current |
|---|---|
| Brent crude | $91.91/bbl (ICE Brent front month, BZ=F · 10 Nov 02:54 GMT quote) |
| Pre-conflict: $72.48 (ICE Brent front-month settlement, 27 February; replaces $71.32, a FRED spot figure) -> $98.32 (January contract settlement, 6 November) -> $92.57 (settlement, 9 November, Reuters) -> $91.91 (BZ=F quote, 10 November 02:54 GMT). FRED physical spot is a different layer and is not used. | |
| US gasoline | $4.009/gal (AAA national average, regular · 9 Nov) |
| Pre-conflict: $2.94 (EIA weekly basis) -> $4.169 (AAA, 2 November) -> $4.020 (AAA, 8 November) -> $4.009 (AAA, 9 November). The EIA weekly read $4.153 for the week of 2 November, a different series. | |
| US ULSD crack spread | $102.93/bbl EIA New York Harbor ULSD spot against WTI (3 Nov) |
| Same-method EIA points: $106.93 (1 September: ULSD $4.724/gal, WTI $91.48) -> $102.93 (3 November: ULSD $4.823/gal, WTI $99.64). Earlier September prints on this line don't reproduce from current EIA data and are not compared; pre-conflict reference not locked. | |
| US retail diesel | $6.172/gal (AAA national average, diesel · 9 Nov) |
| Pre-conflict reference not locked. $6.5276 record (22 September) -> $6.292 (2 November, AAA) -> $6.193 (8 November, AAA) -> $6.172 (9 November, AAA). | |
| Dutch TTF | €82.33/MWh (NYMEX TTF front month, TTF=F · 9 Nov close) |
| Pre-conflict: ~€28-29/MWh (ICE Endex, LOCKED; a different exchange on the same TTF index, so the comparison is indicative). €89.64 (NYMEX TTF=F, 5 November) -> €85.59 (NYMEX TTF=F, 6 November close) -> €82.33 (NYMEX TTF=F, 9 November close). | |
| Urea | $450-460/t Middle East granular FOB (week ending 4 Sep) · stale |
| Pre-conflict: ~$490. No newer weekly assessment is confirmed here. | |
| EU gas storage | 77.7 bcm / 72.4% fill (GIE AGSI+ · 8 Nov) |
| Pre-conflict: 77 bcm (2024) -> 78.3 bcm / 73.0% (6 November) -> 78.0 bcm / 72.7% (7 November) -> 77.7 bcm / 72.4% (8 November). Fill is falling while still below the relaxed 80% target. | |
| Gold | $4,124.20/oz (COMEX GC=F · 10 Nov 02:54 GMT quote) |
| Pre-conflict: $5,247.90 (COMEX April settlement, 27 February; replaces ~$5,184, an LBMA PM Fix) -> $4,074.90 (GC=F, 6 November close) -> $4,124.20 (GC=F quote, 10 November). Gold is about 21% below its pre-conflict COMEX settlement. | |
| VIX | 25.64 (FRED VIXCLS · 6 Nov close) |
| Pre-conflict: ~20 (FRED 19.86) -> 16.61 (4 November) -> 28.18 (5 November) -> 25.64 (6 November). Noel Smith, quoted by CNBC, put the 5 November sell-off down to a hedge-fund liquidation, not oil or rates. | |
| VLCC spot rates | WS1,220.63 / $1,303,616/day round-trip TCE (Baltic TD3C via The Edge · 6 Nov) |
| Pre-conflict: $150-170K/day. WS1,220.63 / $1,303,616/day on 6 November, down almost 47 WS points on the week; the previous assessment here dates from 24 September. | |
| LNG tanker rates | Baltic BLNG1 $54,600, BLNG2 $35,300, BLNG3 $64,600/day (Baltic Exchange via The Edge · 6 Nov); no Spark assessment sourced |
| Rates rose on all three Baltic routes in the week to 6 November: BLNG1 by $9,600, BLNG2 by $5,700 and BLNG3 by $2,200 a day. The previous assessment here dates from 11 September. | |
| Helium supply offline | Partial restart: Qatar's Helium2 plant at roughly 25% of normal capacity on one of four fill bays, with Hormuz closed to commercial traffic (4 Oct) · stale |
| Restart capacity is not delivered supply while Hormuz stays closed. | |
| Cape rerouting | 53 Suez Canal transits in both directions last week (Drewry World Container Index release · 5 Nov) |
| The line counts Suez use, the inverse of rerouting; rising counts mean rerouting is unwinding. Drewry says about 60% of Asia-Europe capacity now routes via Suez. | |
| Ammonia | $680-685/t CFR North West Europe (week ending 4 Sep) · stale |
| Basis: CFR North West Europe. Pre-conflict reference not locked on this basis; Tampa, a cross-check on a different basis, settled at $640/t CFR for November, up $95 (Profercy). | |
| Container freight (FBX) | FBX Weighted Average 3,497, from 3,514 a week earlier (Baltic Exchange via The Edge · 6 Nov), not the FBX global index; Drewry World Container Index composite $4,389/40ft (5 Nov), a different index |
| Pre-conflict: ~$1,950/FEU (LOCKED, an FBX figure). Change of basis: the weighted average and Drewry's composite are different measures from the FBX global index. | |
Pre-conflict baselines from verified Feb 27, 2026 closes where available; Brent and gold use that day's futures settlements. Brent $91.91 (BZ=F, 10 November 02:54 GMT quote, not a settlement), gold $4,124.20 (COMEX GC=F, 10 November quote), Dutch TTF €82.33/MWh (NYMEX TTF=F, 9 November close), VIX 25.64 (FRED, 6 November close) and EU gas storage 77.7 bcm at 72.4% fill (GIE AGSI+, 8 November) come from the automated data supplement of 10 November. US gasoline and diesel are AAA national averages for 9 November. Freight, tanker and crack-spread lines are weekly or dated prints; lines past their stale age are marked stale.
Supply Chain Risk Highlight
Day 255 — The Bypass Is Now a Target, and Oil Is Falling Anyway
Saudi Arabia's energy ministry says the East-West pipeline, which carries Saudi crude around Hormuz to the Red Sea, was targeted near Medina on 9 November. The fire was limited, operations were unaffected and no attacker has been named. Brent still settled 5.85% lower at $92.57 (Reuters), after Trump called new strikes quite unlikely following his meeting with Qatar's prime minister. Iraq says it has US understandings to export through a lane near Oman. The mechanism (inference): every route out of the Gulf now runs on someone's permission, and each one can be attacked. Futures are pricing the talks; the pipeline and the Strait carry the attacks. Windward counted 14 Strait crossings in the 48 hours to 8 November. A pipeline outage, not a headline, is what would close that gap.
Last updated: November 10, 2026 · 02:54 GMT. Revised: 03:06 GMT. Updated daily from public sources and published reporting. This is not live data. Framework assessments are Second-Order structural analysis. Headline figures are confirmed by two independent sources, an official record or exchange data; where a figure rests on one source, the line says so.